Crypto Investor

Current Crypto Cycle: Late Markup — Agent Prepared the Exit Plan

Phase 1 exit locked +34% gains before distribution phaseCrypto & DeFi5 min read

Key Takeaway

On-chain data classified the current crypto cycle as late markup — the phase right before distribution — and the agent built a phased exit plan before the crowd even started talking about tops.

The Problem

Every crypto cycle has the same four phases. Accumulation. Early markup. Late markup. Distribution. And every cycle, people know this intellectually but fail to act on it emotionally.

Late markup is the hardest phase. Prices are high. Your portfolio looks incredible. Twitter is euphoric. Everything is going up. And somewhere in the back of your mind, you know it can't last — but selling feels stupid when things are still ripping.

I've been through 2017 and 2021. Both times, I knew we were in late markup. Both times, I held too long. The problem isn't analysis — it's execution. You need a plan before the emotions hit, and you need something external to hold you accountable to it.

That's what the agent does. It doesn't just classify the cycle. It builds the exit plan and tells me when to execute each phase. No emotions. No "this time is different." Just data and a plan.

The Solution

The Crypto Macro Regime Classifier skill ingests on-chain metrics, exchange data, and cycle-specific indicators to classify the current market phase. It runs daily and compares current metrics to historical patterns from 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles.

The Process

The classifier tracks 12 core on-chain signals:

yamlShow code

# crypto-regime-config.yaml
on_chain_signals:
  valuation:
    - MVRV_ratio          # Market value vs realized value
    - NUPL                # Net unrealized profit/loss
    - puell_multiple      # Miner revenue vs 365d avg
  behavior:
    - exchange_netflow    # Coins entering/leaving exchanges
    - LTH_supply_change   # Long-term holder distribution
    - STH_SOPR            # Short-term holder profit ratio
  network:
    - active_addresses    # Network activity
    - transaction_volume  # On-chain transaction value
    - new_addresses       # Growth rate
  market_structure:
    - funding_rates       # Perpetual futures funding
    - open_interest       # Derivatives positioning
    - stablecoin_supply   # Dry powder on sidelines

cycle_phases:
  accumulation: { action: "build_position", size: "full" }
  early_markup: { action: "hold", size: "full" }
  late_markup: { action: "begin_exit", size: "phased_reduction" }
  distribution: { action: "accelerate_exit", size: "minimal" }

Current cycle classification output:

View details

Cycle Phase: LATE MARKUP (confidence: 78%)

Evidence:
├── MVRV: 2.8 (elevated — historical tops: 3.5-4.0)
├── NUPL: 0.62 (greed zone — not extreme yet)
├── Exchange netflow: -12K BTC/week → -3K BTC/week (outflows declining)
├── LTH supply change: -0.4%/month (distribution begun)
├── STH SOPR: 1.04 (still profitable but compressing)
├── Funding rates: 0.03% (elevated but not extreme)
├── New addresses: +2.1%/week (retail arriving)
└── Stablecoin supply: $165B (high — but growth slowing)

Cycle Comparison:
┌──────────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐
│ Metric       │ 2017 Top │ 2021 Top │ Current  │
├──────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤
│ MVRV         │ 4.2      │ 3.8      │ 2.8      │
│ NUPL         │ 0.78     │ 0.72     │ 0.62     │
│ LTH selling  │ heavy    │ heavy    │ starting │
│ Exchange flow│ large in │ large in │ neutral  │
│ Retail surge │ extreme  │ extreme  │ moderate │
└──────────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘

Assessment: Late markup phase. Not at cycle top yet.
Historical pattern: late markup → distribution in 2-4 months.
Conditions for distribution trigger: MVRV >3.5, NUPL >0.70,
exchange inflows sustained >20K BTC/week.

The agent generated this exit plan:

jsonShow code

{
  "phase": "late_markup",
  "exit_plan": {
    "phase_1": {
      "trigger": "NOW (late markup confirmed)",
      "action": "Reduce 20% of crypto allocation",
      "target": "Stablecoins or fiat",
      "rationale": "Lock partial profits while still in markup"
    },
    "phase_2": {
      "trigger": "MVRV crosses 3.2 OR exchange inflows >15K BTC/week",
      "action": "Reduce additional 20%",
      "target": "Stablecoins",
      "rationale": "Approaching historical distribution zone"
    },
    "phase_3": {
      "trigger": "Distribution phase confirmed OR MVRV >3.5",
      "action": "Evaluate remaining 60%",
      "target": "Keep 30% for blow-off potential, exit 30%",
      "rationale": "Asymmetric: blow-off top could 2x, but distribution could -60%"
    }
  },
  "requires_approval": true
}

The Results

84% on 2017 + 2021 data

Cycle classification accuracy (backtested)

Late markup (78% confidence)

Current phase

~6 weeks

Time in late markup

2-4 months

Historical late markup → distribution

Yes — 20% to stablecoins

Phase 1 exit executed

Reduced from 18% to 14.4%

Portfolio crypto exposure

+34% on exited portion

Unrealized gains locked

The power of this system isn't in predicting the exact top. Nobody does that. The power is in having a plan that executes mechanically. When MVRV crosses 3.2, I don't need to think about it. I don't need to argue with Twitter. Phase 2 fires. That's it.

Try It Yourself

Install the Crypto Macro Regime Classifier skill. You'll need an on-chain data provider — Glassnode or CryptoQuant APIs work. The classifier needs at least 2 full cycles of historical data to calibrate (built-in for BTC and ETH). Configure your exit plan thresholds based on your risk tolerance.

The key: build the plan during accumulation or early markup, when you're calm and rational. Not during late markup when greed is screaming.

Start free on Mr.Chief →

The best exit plan is the one you wrote when you didn't need it.

crypto-cycleon-chainMVRVNUPLexit-strategy

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Crypto Investor

Current Crypto Cycle: Late Markup — Agent Prepared the Exit Plan

Phase 1 exit locked +34% gains before distribution phaseCrypto & DeFi5 min read

Key Takeaway

On-chain data classified the current crypto cycle as late markup — the phase right before distribution — and the agent built a phased exit plan before the crowd even started talking about tops.

The Problem

Every crypto cycle has the same four phases. Accumulation. Early markup. Late markup. Distribution. And every cycle, people know this intellectually but fail to act on it emotionally.

That's what the agent does. It doesn't just classify the cycle. It builds the exit plan and tells me when to execute each phase. No emotions. No "this time is different." Just data and a plan.

The Solution

The Process

The classifier tracks 12 core on-chain signals:

yamlShow code

# crypto-regime-config.yaml
on_chain_signals:
  valuation:
    - MVRV_ratio          # Market value vs realized value
    - NUPL                # Net unrealized profit/loss
    - puell_multiple      # Miner revenue vs 365d avg
  behavior:
    - exchange_netflow    # Coins entering/leaving exchanges
    - LTH_supply_change   # Long-term holder distribution
    - STH_SOPR            # Short-term holder profit ratio
  network:
    - active_addresses    # Network activity
    - transaction_volume  # On-chain transaction value
    - new_addresses       # Growth rate
  market_structure:
    - funding_rates       # Perpetual futures funding
    - open_interest       # Derivatives positioning
    - stablecoin_supply   # Dry powder on sidelines

cycle_phases:
  accumulation: { action: "build_position", size: "full" }
  early_markup: { action: "hold", size: "full" }
  late_markup: { action: "begin_exit", size: "phased_reduction" }
  distribution: { action: "accelerate_exit", size: "minimal" }

Current cycle classification output:

View details

Cycle Phase: LATE MARKUP (confidence: 78%)

Evidence:
├── MVRV: 2.8 (elevated — historical tops: 3.5-4.0)
├── NUPL: 0.62 (greed zone — not extreme yet)
├── Exchange netflow: -12K BTC/week → -3K BTC/week (outflows declining)
├── LTH supply change: -0.4%/month (distribution begun)
├── STH SOPR: 1.04 (still profitable but compressing)
├── Funding rates: 0.03% (elevated but not extreme)
├── New addresses: +2.1%/week (retail arriving)
└── Stablecoin supply: $165B (high — but growth slowing)

Cycle Comparison:
┌──────────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐
│ Metric       │ 2017 Top │ 2021 Top │ Current  │
├──────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤
│ MVRV         │ 4.2      │ 3.8      │ 2.8      │
│ NUPL         │ 0.78     │ 0.72     │ 0.62     │
│ LTH selling  │ heavy    │ heavy    │ starting │
│ Exchange flow│ large in │ large in │ neutral  │
│ Retail surge │ extreme  │ extreme  │ moderate │
└──────────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘

Assessment: Late markup phase. Not at cycle top yet.
Historical pattern: late markup → distribution in 2-4 months.
Conditions for distribution trigger: MVRV >3.5, NUPL >0.70,
exchange inflows sustained >20K BTC/week.

The agent generated this exit plan:

jsonShow code

{
  "phase": "late_markup",
  "exit_plan": {
    "phase_1": {
      "trigger": "NOW (late markup confirmed)",
      "action": "Reduce 20% of crypto allocation",
      "target": "Stablecoins or fiat",
      "rationale": "Lock partial profits while still in markup"
    },
    "phase_2": {
      "trigger": "MVRV crosses 3.2 OR exchange inflows >15K BTC/week",
      "action": "Reduce additional 20%",
      "target": "Stablecoins",
      "rationale": "Approaching historical distribution zone"
    },
    "phase_3": {
      "trigger": "Distribution phase confirmed OR MVRV >3.5",
      "action": "Evaluate remaining 60%",
      "target": "Keep 30% for blow-off potential, exit 30%",
      "rationale": "Asymmetric: blow-off top could 2x, but distribution could -60%"
    }
  },
  "requires_approval": true
}

The Results

84% on 2017 + 2021 data

Cycle classification accuracy (backtested)

Late markup (78% confidence)

Current phase

~6 weeks

Time in late markup

2-4 months

Historical late markup → distribution

Yes — 20% to stablecoins

Phase 1 exit executed

Reduced from 18% to 14.4%

Portfolio crypto exposure

+34% on exited portion

Unrealized gains locked

Try It Yourself

The key: build the plan during accumulation or early markup, when you're calm and rational. Not during late markup when greed is screaming.

Start free on Mr.Chief →

The best exit plan is the one you wrote when you didn't need it.

crypto-cycleon-chainMVRVNUPLexit-strategy

Related case studies

Crypto Investor

On-Chain Data Says Distribution Phase — My Agent Sold Before the Drop

How an AI agent classified crypto's distribution phase using MVRV, SOPR, and whale data — and reduced exposure before a 35% drop. On-chain analytics meets autonomous portfolio management.

€47K capital preserved before 35% drop4 min read

Crypto Investor

DCA Automation on Base — $500 of ETH Every Monday, Zero Effort

AI agent automates weekly DCA purchases on Base L2 via Bankr — executing swaps, tracking cost basis, and pausing on abnormal gas. Zero manual effort crypto accumulation.

100% execution compliance vs ~70% manual4 min read

Crypto Investor

Fear-Greed Extremes as a Buy Signal — How My Agent Caught the Bottom

Using AI agents to monitor the crypto fear-greed index and trigger buy signals at extremes. Historical backtest shows 85% average returns buying at fear levels below 20.

85% avg return on fear signals5 min read

Want results like these?

Start free with your own AI team. No credit card required.

Start Free →Browse agents